The current non-ferrous metal recycling industry is in a critical growth period of "policy driven+technological breakthroughs+demand explosion". The global and domestic market continues to expand, with outstanding highlights in segmented fields. Although facing some challenges, the overall prospects are very broad. The following is a detailed analysis from multiple dimensions:

Policy support strengthens the foundation of development, and the market scale continues to expand

Comprehensive empowerment of domestic policies: China has elevated resource recycling to a national strategic level. In 2025, the "Government Work Report" proposed for the first time to "vigorously promote the use of recycled materials". The implementation plan for high-quality development of the copper and aluminum industries also set quantitative targets for 2027. Policies such as recycling scrapped cars and exchanging old appliances for new ones will directly promote an increase of over 8% in the supply of scrap copper and aluminum resources by 2024. In addition, "reverse invoicing" has solved the problem of no tickets at the source. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has launched aluminum alloy futures and taken multiple measures to promote industry standardization. It is predicted that the average annual growth rate of this industry in China will reach 8% -12% from 2025 to 2030, and the market size will increase from about 450 billion yuan to over 700 billion yuan.

International policies have formed a green orientation: over 70 countries around the world have introduced mandatory regulations for the use of recycled materials, the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism, and the US's tax incentives for domestic recycling enterprises. Although these policies have restructured the flow of international trade, they have also forced an increase in demand for recycled non-ferrous metals. The global market size for recycled non-ferrous metals is expected to exceed 2.2 trillion yuan by 2030, with China accounting for over 40%.

Downstream demand explodes at multiple points, with strong growth in segmented tracks

The demand for traditional main metals is stable: copper and aluminum, as core sub sectors, are growing steadily. The market size of recycled copper has reached 180 billion yuan by 2025 and is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2030; The market for recycled aluminum will also grow from 120 billion yuan in 2025 to over 200 billion yuan. In the automotive industry, the proportion of recycled aluminum used globally has exceeded 42%, and the penetration rate of recycled aluminum in China's new energy vehicle sector is as high as 65%; The penetration rate of recycled aluminum formwork in the construction industry has increased to 35%, continuously driving demand.

New energy related metals become new engines: With the development of new energy vehicles and energy storage industries, the demand for metal recycling such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel has surged. The market size of lithium battery recycling is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of over 15%. At the same time, each pure electric vehicle requires 80 kilograms of recycled copper, and photovoltaic brackets drive an annual increase of 15% in demand for recycled aluminum. The amount of recycled zinc used in the wind power equipment field has exceeded 600000 tons, and emerging fields have become the core driving force for growth.

The advantages of rare metal recycling are significant: China leads the world in rare and precious metal recycling. By 2024, the production of recycled rare earths, lithium, and indium will account for over 90%, 75%, and 70% of the global total, respectively. The recycling production of tungsten, tin, and germanium will also exceed half of the global total. The application of these metals in electronics, high-end manufacturing, and other fields will continue to support the development of their recycling market.

Technological innovation improves quality and efficiency, and industrial competitiveness continues to rise

Upgrade of recycling and refining technology: Intelligent sorting, efficient melting and other technologies are rapidly promoted, and the accuracy of metal composition rapid detection based on artificial intelligence reaches 99.7%. The number of patent applications for low-carbon processes such as low-temperature melting and bio metallurgy has increased by 45%. These technologies not only improve metal recovery rates and purity, but also reduce secondary pollution, such as the expected 95% recovery rate of regenerated metals from power batteries by 2026.

Digital transformation acceleration: The Internet of Things and blockchain technology are gradually being applied, and digital traceability covers 30% of the international trade volume of recycled metals. The coverage rate of domestic intelligent recycling bins in key cities reaches 75%. The digital recycling management platform can also achieve waste traceability, reduce manual errors, and promote efficient operation of the industry.

Optimization and upgrading of industrial pattern, continuous highlighting of investment value

Market concentration improvement: Global industry competition is intensifying, with the top ten recycling companies having a market share of 38% by 2025, an increase of 6 percentage points from 2023. Domestic primary smelting enterprises such as Chinalco and Jiangxi Copper, as well as automobile companies such as BYD, have crossed over to expand their recycling businesses. Leading enterprises have expanded their advantages through large-scale operations and full industry chain integration, forming industrial clusters in areas such as Yingtan, Jiangxi, and further reducing costs.

The investment heat is soaring: the high return potential of the industry attracts capital inflows, and it is expected that the cumulative investment in related fields will exceed 50 billion yuan in the next 5 years. The financing amount has exceeded 20 billion yuan by 2023, and the funds are mostly invested in automation equipment and closed-loop recovery systems. At the same time, Chinese companies are also expanding their global resource channels by establishing pre-processing bases in Southeast Asia and the Middle East through overseas mergers and acquisitions.

However, there are also some challenges in the industry, such as insufficient investment in digitalization and environmental protection by some domestic small and medium-sized enterprises, low efficiency of raw material recycling networks, and fluctuations in international metal prices and trade barriers that can also affect profit margins. However, overall, driven by multiple factors such as policies, demand, and technology, the trend of the non-ferrous metal recycling industry transforming towards efficiency, greenness, and intelligence is irreversible, and the future development prospects remain promising.